What are my gains in 2021 so far?

I have been changing my investment strategy lately, based on multiple assumptions.

Let me explain my reasonings in a nut shell.

1] First, when you are in the middle of a pandemic, it does not make so much sense to "diversify" your portfolio based on the usual methodologies. Therefore, I invested in:

• Moderna since it is a highly scalable and integrated company, whose model I deeply covered in many previous articles in this blog
• TSMC for semiconductor manufacturing
• ASML as one key supplier of photolitographic machinery for cutting edge semiconductor production (I explained ASML's tech many months ago)

This is because the pandemic boosted the adoption of digital technologies at all levels. Very simple to understand, I guess.

2] Second, inflation. Now, inflation is caused when demand exceeds supply or there is a glut of money supply vs the available set of goods/assets and services.  Due to covid, there was a shortage of goods (not services), caused by the decreasing availability of containerships across the world. 

In addition, due to lockdowns, many workers could not go out to work. Furthermore, the Central Banks had injected huge amount of liquidity that had to find a route somewhere: for the most part they ended up into stocks and real estate, but some of this liquidity eventually poured into ordinary goods and services. In addition, when lockdowns were lifted, people literally assaulted beaches, resorts, hotels, camping sites, causing a huge surge in prices during the Summer time. 

I think this effect is temporary. Let me explain it better: in the long term, globalization will prevail, so prices will go down again. Of course, there are important "buts": a war between the USA and China over Taiwan, tariffs applied on exported/imported goods, which might lead to a collapse in the supply chains all over the globe, triggering high rates of inflation. Is this scenario likely? Well, I do not think so. Time will tell, though.

3] Third, rise of emerging countries, like India, which need energy. Despite the battle for the green energy, we have to realize that countries seek for cheap energy, especially when they have to develop new infrastructures from scratch. This means coal and oil. This is unfortunate but it is the bitter truth. During the heat wave that struck China a few weeks ago, China had increased the consumption of coal, and the price of coal went up. 

Natural gas will ramp up, of course, no doubt about that. 

All in all, I am long on Chevron, Gazprom etc. I bought Chevron, which also pays fat dividends (north of 5%).

So far, in 2021, my gains have been in the order of 30%. I am talking about REALIZED gains, that is the stocks I have already sold. Due to the titanic fight between these two forces (globalization which is deflationary, and money supply which is inflationary, plus the pandemic news that cause the market to go crazy overnight almost on a daily basis), there is a huge volatility around, therefore it is better to buy and sell in a short time interval some specific stocks, mainly semiconductors and biotechs, like Moderna and Biontech. I pile up cash waiting for 

I keep Chevron or Clean Energy Fuels for the long term (the latter is a small amount).

What do you think about this approach? comments are welcome.